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Thursday, May 18, 2006

Races of the Week

Barbaro was very impressive in winning the Kentucky Derby and appears to be the most likely winner of Saturday's Preakness Stakes, but, as the even-money morning-line favorite, he'll probably go off at too short a price to justify a bet on him. I'm looking for a colt who can pull off the upset. Like Now just might be that colt. Like Now's front-running style is well suited to Pimlico. The Weather Channel predicts rain in Baltimore tomorrow night, and Like Now's Tomlinson rating indicates that he should like an off track. I'll bet Like Now to win, along with a Barbaro-Like Now exacta. The Daily Racing Form provides free past performances for the Preakness here.

The Form's other race of the week is tomorrow's Pimlico Special Handicap. Wanderin' Boy looks like the prohibitive favorite, but it will be interesting to see how Invasor performs in his North American debut. Invasor was undefeated in Uruguay before shipping to Dubai for the UAE Derby, where he finished fourth. He could be one to watch. Past performances for the Pimlico Special are available here.


Blogger KipEsquire said...

The easy money in the Triple Crown, given the volume of idiot bettors, is to look for inordinate win-place or win-show spreads. If all the dumb money is betting to win, then betting to show can often offer an attractive risk-reward, especially considering the outcomes for the past few years.

7:44 AM, May 19, 2006  
Blogger Jason Sonenshein said...

Kip, You've read Dr. Z's Beat the Race Track by William Ziemba, haven't you? Back in the days before simulcasting, I used to do that all the time at Raceway Park. I usually made enough to pay for admission and a program, too.

5:39 PM, May 19, 2006  

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